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Today’s Ratings and Market Movers 01/07/19

This morning I will get to replying to those e-mails….humble apologies for not getting back sooner but it’s all been kicking off and we needed to get our heads around an issue.

Before I go any further though, welcome to those new members that signed up yesterday! I will be e-mailing you, too, explaining how best to work with what you are going to have put in front of you every morning, and how to make profit from it all.

If you only knew what was going on at my end and over at AG Towers yesterday, looking at trends etc to find reasons for why things happen as they do, and how we can male those things work for us.

Andy and Riz were giving it large down there and having already produced those stats you read regarding 3-y-o’s, Riz started digging deeper, to look at how we can make those Saturday’s more productive.

I’ve mentioned a few times that racing changes, and we have to go with it. We see far to much racing on a Saturday now and last weekend that was madness. I knew on Friday evening we’d be struggling to work with that lot and so it proved.

This week I’ll put a Newsletter together explaining what has come to light and, what we’ll be doing with it.

I’d mentioned to Andy on Saturday morning that I felt we’d struggle to get anything out of York and, we got stuffed. That was because those fields were huge and ultra competitive. No matter how many times you look at races like those, they never cease to look like minefields.

They will be run differently to other races, horses will need more luck in running, and horses that struggle to get competitive in smaller fields come to the fore and do their thing.

On Saturday GULLIVER won just his second race on turf, in 16 runs on it. His last turf win had come in October 2016….nearly three years ago. So, what is that horses profile when it comes to field size?

I was looking at that yesterday, whilst Riz was getting the abacus out and crunching his numbers.

The horse has five career wins to date and all bar one had come in field sizes of 13 or more…..the one that didn’t had 11 runners.

His last three wins before Saturday had come on all weather tracks and his turf Rating was right. What he did have on Saturday was the right draw. When York rides as it did, low drawn horses are much preferred.

Now, what the horse also had was track winning form. His only previous win on turf, nearly three years ago, came at York…..when he was wearing first time blinkers. So, he had a lot going for him on Saturday, but how did he turn around the form of just five weeks earlier with SOLDIER’S MINUTE, who had beaten him around eight lengths under those exact same conditions, save for the fact their were three more runners five weeks previously.

Low draw again would have been required….SOLDIER’S MINUTE was drawn three, GULLIVER was drawn two….so no excuses on that day for Saturday’s winner.

The top and bottom of it is, I reckon, is that we are working with handicappers. There will be days they are not “required” to win and the most important thing is to get back to a mark they can reasonably be expected to win off.

One thing I’ll never be able to do is read the minds of those trainers who make winning handicaps their “thing”, because they do not have £2m horses sent to them by the big owners. They have to work with the types of horses they will get and the likes of David O’Meara, Easterby, Fahey, etc are brilliant at it.

Look at the result of that race again on Saturday and you’ll see the first four horses home were trained by….O’Meara, Fahey, Easterby, O’Meara.

I had three of those four drawn right were I wanted them….the first, third and fourth drawn 4, 1, and 2.

This is no coincidence. It’s what they do. But between them on Saturday, they were responsible for 10 of the 18 that raced. I came close to solving it but couldn’t see GULLIVER winning on turf for the first time in close to three years and the horses I would have played, had I played, came home third and fourth.

That I make my living betting only on handicaps then is, I’m sure you’ll agree, something akin to alchemy!

Yesterday we enjoyed a successful end to June:

A profit of £3k since May 4th, given everything the weather has thrown at us, is superb.

All we can keep doing is what we have been doing, make adjustments when adjustments need making and crack on.

Below you have nine rated races for today, plus eight Market Movers and trust that July brings us even better profits.

Have a great day!

Kindest regards

Ron

MARKET MOVERS
WINDSOR

5-45 – LIGHTENING DANCE – 11/2 . 4/1
6-15 – BOCKOS AMBER….20/1 > 9/1
7-15. – TAKUMI – 5/2 > 13/8
7-45 – ICE AGE – 11/2 > 9/2

PONTEFRACT

2-00 – SCUZEME – 11/2 > 4/1
2-00 – ROUND THE ISLAND – 16/1 > 10/1
3-30 – STRINDBERG – 3/1 > 15/8

CATTERICK

7-00 – MY STRONG MAN – 14/1 > 7/1
8-00 – FRAMLEY GARTH – 10/1  > 13/2

TODAY’S RATINGS AND ADVICE

MARKET MOVERS IN RATED RACES HIGHLIGHTED

WINDSOR 5-45 – 1m3½f  (1m3f99y) Visitmarathonbet.co.uk Fillies’ Handicap  (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-70)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

3* – CHERRY COLA….+17
3H – SCENESETTER….+14
* – MISS M….-1
3 – SPICE OF LIFE….-31
* – FULL SUIT….-40
H – LIGHTENING DREAM….-40
3W2 – DELTA BRAVO….-40
MARY ELISE….-40
3 – MAIDEN NAVIGATOR….-40

NOTES:

WINDSOR 7-15 – 1m2f  Marathonbet Sportsbook Handicap  (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-90)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

* – LAWN RANGER….+11
* – STEALTH FIGHTER….+11
3H – TAKUMI (BF)….+9
MADELAINE BOND….+9
AL JELLABY….-8
* – ROTHERWICK….-14
GRAPEVINE….-32
MARATHA….-34

NOTES:

WINDSOR 7-45 – 6f  (6f12y) Sky Sports Racing On Virgin 535 Handicap (Sky Bet Windsor Sprint Series Qualifier)  (Class 2)(3yo+ 0-105)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

* – ICE AGE (BF)….+8
* – EMBOUR….+7
T* – UDONTDODOU….+4
POLYBIUS….+1
* – SHOW STEALER….-1
EQUITATION….-15
* – VICTORY ANGEL….-17
* – WALK ON WATER….-17

NOTES:

WINDSOR 8-45 – 1m  (1m31y) Visit attheraces.com Handicap  (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-70)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – M-L/H

3§* – ORLIKO….+10
§ – FLEETING FREEDOM….+8
* – RAKEMATIZ….-3
§ – DELICATE KISS….-10
H§* – TALLY’S SON….-10
* – BOUNTY PURSUIT….-16
3§ – COPAL….-26
3 – WALL OF SAPPHIRE….-27
3 – ADAM TILER….-28
3 – SHIFTING GOLD….-33
H§ – MONSIEUR FOX….-37
MAXIMUM POWER (BF)….-40
3 – BLACK MEDICK….-40
SIR MAGNUM….-40

NOTES:

PONTEFRACT 2-00 – 6f  Geoffrey Oldroyd – A Lifetime In Racing Handicap  (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-75)

PRECEIVED DSRAW BIAS – H-L-M

* – PENNY POT LANE….+15
* – TRICKY DICKY….+13
§* – ROUND THE ISLAND….+11
§* – MUJASSAM (BF)….+10
* – MR ORANGE….+10
§* – COSMIC CHATTER….+8
H – GULLANE ONE….+3
* – SCUZEME (BF)….-8
* – MUTAFARRID….-10
3 – PRINCESS PALLISER….-11
§ – MYSTICAL MOON….-20
MAGICAL EFFECT….-22
3H§ – JOHN CLARE (BF)….-39

PONTEFRACT 3-00 – 6f  Napoleons Casino Bradford Fillies’ Handicap  (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-90)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

3* – PRICESS DES SABLES….+8
3T – CHYNNA….-24
DIZZY G….-25
* – DAFFY JANE….-35
CALE LANE….-40
HELLS BABE….-40

PONTEFRACT 4-30 – 1m  (1m6y) John Quinn Racing Handicap  (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

* – ROUSAYAN….+10
3* – SMILE A MILE….+9
* – MONT KINABALU….+9
* – SPIORAD….+8
CASEMENT (BF)….-24
3T – KHEROS….-27
GHALIB….-38
H – FRANKELIO….-40

CATTERICK 8-00 – 1m4f  (1m4f13y) KC Ethical British Caviar Handicap  (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

T* – GRAND INQUISITOR….+20
T* – NEW SHOW….+14
* – INGLEBY HOLLOW….+7
* – CARD HIGH….-20
FINAL….-27
* – FRAMLEY GARTH….-32
QUESTION OF FAITH….-32

CATTERICK 8-30 – 7f  (7f6y) British EBF Fillies’ Handicap  (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-80)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

* – ROSE MARMARA….+15
T* – ARABIAN JAZZ….+5
* – EPONINA….+1
* – BIBBIDIBOBBIDIBOO….-1
* – RUX RUXX….-3
H* – BETSEY TROTTER….-3
* – HARVEST DAY….-14
* – PEGGY’S ANGEL….-40

About Ron.Robinson

Ron.Robinson

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