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Cheltenham Special Review – Day 3

At least one day out of the four can be described as “tricky” and the Wednesday this week was that day.

I didn’t actually think that finding the winners this day was difficult….it’s just that I didn’t find them all.

Day 4 was brilliant though….that review will follow tomorrow 😉

MARSH NOVICE CHASE

What a cracking good race this looks. Good to see FAUGHEEN turning out but if a 12 year old wins this, I will be losing money.

You need to be working with six and seven year olds as they have won all nine previous running’s of this event.

BAPAUME
ITCHY FEET
MIDNIGHT SHADOW
MISTER FISHER
POKER PLAY
RESERVE TANK
TORNADO FLYER
ANNIE MC

As good a mare as ANNIE MC is, only one has managed to win this in the nine running’s to date so, she goes:

BAPAUME
ITCHY FEET
MIDNIGHT SHADOW
MISTER FISHER
POKER PLAY
RESERVE TANK
TORNADO FLYER

Market next and with only one winner bigger than 7/1 and with the winner being in the front two on the tissue in seven of those nine previous races, I’m left with this pair:

ITCHY FEET
MISTER FISHER

I should point out here that the Irish have won seven of the nine running’s but like I say, FAUGHEEN is a 12 year old and SAMCRO is the perfect example of the “bubble bursting”.

I’m happy to dutch that pair but looking for a solo play I’m aware that all nine previous winners had raced over hurdles at a Festival. The pair ran in last seasons Supreme Novices’ with ITCHY FEET finishing third, MISTER FISHER back in eighth.
You need to be coming here off the back of a win…both do.

Eight of the last nine winners had won over the trip this race will be run at….both have.

Seven of the nine previous winners had arrived having won a Graded Chase…again, both have.

Here I’ll admit to being on ITCHY FEET @ 9/2 and whilst Olly Muphy saddles his first ever runner in this, Nicky Henderson has saddled 10….but never won it.

I’m sticking with my ITCHY FEET.

DUTCH

ITCHY FEET
MISTER FISHER

20/80

ITCHY FEET

REVIEW: ITCHY FEET never picked up a foot and it was no shock at all when he got shut of his pilot.

The age stat was blown out of the water…this time….as the first two home were aged eight and the third placed horse 12.

I did point out that the Irish trained horses had won seven of the previous nine runnings of this but the shortest priced of theirs was SAMCRO, who has been the “nearly” horse for years now. I certainly couldn’t have backed him @ 4/1 but he just held on from another 8-y-o Irish runner, with FAUGHEEN coming home third @ 3/1F.

Not form I’ll use going forward.

PERTEMPS FINAL

If you read my post on the Forum regarding this race then you’ll know I believe THE STORYTELLER has been laid out for this since very early this season.

Gordon Elliott has run just eight in this since he started training. He has won it with two, placed with three others.

I would love that to come out as my Profile selection.

Age grouping.

Nothing younger than six, nothing older than eight.

SIRE DU BERLAIS
JATILUWIH
ROCKET LAD
STONEY MOUNTAIN
THIRD WIND
DINGO DOLLAR
SKANDIBURG
FRED THE FOOT
WELSH SAINT
BURROWS PARK
RELEGATE
TOUT EST PERMIS
RAPPER
COPPER GONE WEST
ROYAL THIEF
SUNSET SHOWDOWN
DOUBLY CLEVER
ANYTIME WILL DO
MIGHTY THUNDER

The last two are “reserves”….I hate having to work with those.

Weight range next. It used to be safe to say that anything carrying more than 11st 4lb might just as well stay in stables but two of the last three winners carried 11st 11lb and 11st 9lb and both were Irish trained (they do know how to ready one for this).

THE STORYTELLER has the same weight to carry as last season’s Elliott plot and it all really stacks up, if that horse is on a going day.

But for the purposes of Profiling we run with what we “know”.

I’m pruning those horses carrying more than 11st 4lb:

ROCKET LAD
STONEY MOUNTAIN
THIRD WIND
DINGO DOLLAR
SKANDIBURG
FRED THE FOOT
WELSH SAINT
BURROWS PARK
RELEGATE
TOUT EST PERMIS
RAPPER
COPPER GONE WEST
ROYAL THIEF
SUNSET SHOWDOWN
DOUBLY CLEVER
ANYTIME WILL DO
MIGHTY THUNDER

Market place next.

Only two favourites have won this in the last 22 years and whilst RELEGATE has a special place in my heart after that 2018 win in the Bumper, he’s going.

In 2012 we nailed CAPE TRIBULATION @ 14/1 Profiling this and with only one winner since then going off bigger than that SP, I’m culling anything priced larger than that.

THIRD WIND
SKANDIBURG
WELSH SAINT
TOUT EST PERMIS

Down to four.

In a race like this, I’m more than happy to have four running for me in a dutch but the only one of that quartet I’d want my solo play on is

SKANDIBURG

Eight of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles between six and 10 times. Both WELSH SAINT and THIRD WIND are coming here inexperienced, just five runs, whilst TOUT EST PERMIS is well exposed, 15 previous runs over hurdles.

DUTCH

THIRD WIND
SKANDIBURG
WELSH SAINT
TOUT EST PERMIS

20/80

SKANDIBURG

REVIEW: Another Olly Murphy runner that disappointed as SKANDIBURG was beaten very early on. However, everyone should have been on THE STORYTELLER 20/80 as I’d provided you with all the hints and clues more than a week before the event….and the Ratings provided us all with a top two 1-2….and two of those four in the profiling quartet came home third and fourth.

I was happy enough with this one, all in all.

RYANAIR CHASE

One of my favourite races at the Festival.

Only eight going to post and this shouldn’t take long.

Seven year olds have dominated this, winning 50% of the last 10 previous running’s, and four of the last five.

I have A PLUS TARD in my ante-post plays (9/4), but no six year old has won this so….

DUC DES GENIEVRES
RIDERS ON THE STORM
SAINT CALVADOS

I’ll dutch that trio but looking for my 20/80 I’ll only entertain horses trading shorter than 10/1. Only two of the last 10 winners went off bigger than that and it has to be:

RIDERS ON THE STORM

DUTCH

DUC DES GENIEVRES
RIDERS ON THE STORM
SAINT CALVADOS

20/80

RIDERS ON THE STORM

REVIEW: I felt RIDERS ONTHE STORM was running a cracker when he came down and would definitely have been involved in the finish but, if you don’t jump them all, you win nothing.

He was switched outside coming to three out and had not been asked for his effort and was more than close enough but mullahed that fence, went base over apex and the cash was lost.

I then thought SAINT CALVADOS was going to land my dutch but as he came through with his challenge, he belted the last and failed by a neck to get up @ 16/1.

STAYERS HURDLE

On paper, with 15 runners, it looks competitive but, of course, it wont be.

PAISLEY PARK is head and shoulders above all staying hurdlers. On official figures only one of his opponents is within a stone of him on official figures and that is APPLES JADE.

She might run into a place at a big price and if you must have a bet, a small 20/80 might land some place portions.

No point at all in Profiling this race and I expect the long odds on favourite to do exactly what he did last year but a no bet race for me personally.

REVIEW: I didn’t bet a bean on this race but those that had the kahoonas to stick with the 20 to Follow selection LISNAGAR OSCAR had the sweetest shock of their lives when he won with a BFSP of 120

BROWN ADVISORY & MERRIBELLE CHASE

I want nothing younger than six, nothing older than nine, in my first shortlist:

MISTER WHITAKER
DEATH DUTY
SIRUH DU LAC
SIMPLY THE BETTS
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES
HAPPY DIVA
LA BAGUE AU ROI
CLONDAW CASTLE
KAUTO RIKO
VISION DES FLOS
BEN DUNDEE
OLDGRANGEWOOD
IMPERIAL PRESENCE
DEYRANN DE CARJAC
LOUIS’ VAC POUCH
CHARMANT
HIGHWAY ONE O ONE
BLAZER
SPRINGTOWN LAKE
ROYAL VILLAGE
NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE

Weight range next and with nine of the last 10 winners carrying no more than 10st 13lb I have to remove everything above that weight:

LOUIS’ VAC POUCH
CHARMANT
HIGHWAY ONE O ONE
BLAZER
SPRINGTOWN LAKE
ROYAL VILLAGE
NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE

That removes all of the fancied horses but if you look at the prices of the last 10 winners of this, you’d feel that makes sense…18/1, 25/1, 50/1, 12/1, 33/1. 16/1, 14/1

Now it comes down to casting bones into the dust.

Nine of the last 10 winners had been over fences no more than a dozen times:

LOUIS’ VAC POUCH
CHARMANT
BLAZER
SPRINGTOWN LAKE
ROYAL VILLAGE
NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE

That gets rid of one.

I do not want a horse onside that comes into this race having won last time out. Only three of the last 10 have managed that so two go here:

LOUIS’ VAC POUCH
BLAZER
ROYAL VILLAGE
NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE

I cannot find a winner of this doing so on seasonal debut so NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE drops out now, and gives me a three horse dutch:

LOUIS’ VAC POUCH
BLAZER
ROYAL VILLAGE

That’s the dutch boxed off but now I want to offer one up for a 20/80

Only one winner of this arrived having achieved a top three finish last time out and so the solo play is

BLAZER.

DUTCH

LOUIS’ VAC POUCH
BLAZER
ROYAL VILLAGE

20/80

BLAZER

REVIEW: LOUIS VAC POUCH ran a blinder to finish 7th @ 50/1 beaten only 10 lengths at the finish but BLAZER was hampered and dropped right back at the 8th fence. Hey was never involved after that, unsurprisingly.

The winner was the “most obvious” selection, if you were simply going to go with form, as he’d beaten IMPERIAL AURA easily enough and that one had won earlier at the Festival.

But hey, if I simply posted up the “glaringly obvious” for each race, we’d get a right proper hiding and not back those big priced winners we often do.

MARES’ NOVICES HURDLE

I cannot profile this as we’ve only had four running’s so far but last season I received a lovely e-mail from a lady that had taken my advice to simply concentrate on the horses entered up by Willie Mullins, as he had won the first three running’s.

She had a tenner on each of his and backed the 50/1 winner. Mighty pleased she was, too!

If you do similar tomorrow, you will not see a price like that!

REVIEW: All you had to do here was exactly as had been advised last year. There is no finer trainer of mares than Willie Mullins.

I knew he’d win it again and I knew we’d not see that ridiculous price of last season.

He saddled four in this and they finished 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th.

It’s far too young a race for me to Profile…but who needs Profiling anyway?

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR

Without a shadow of a doubt, RAVENHILL would have won this, pulling double….no, I’m still not over it!!

Seven, eight and nine year olds dominate this, eight of the last nine winners between them.

LE MUSEE
LE BREUIL
CABARET QUEEN
FLYING ANGEL
DEISE ABA
FITZHENRY
GO ANOTHER ONE
THE KINGS WRIT
MILAN NATIVE
BOB MAHLER
ARDLETHEN
PLAN OF ATTACK
LIKE THE SOUND
KILFINUM CROSS
THOMAS PATRICK
COUP DE PINCEAU
CLOTH CAP
JUST A STING

Doesn’t get rid of many, but it’s a start.

The weight range doesn’t help us as the last 10 have all been won by horses carrying more than 11st and less than 12st.

So, off to market again.

Only three of the last 10 winners had been priced bigger than 9/1 and they included the 40/1 “shocker”, DOMESDAY BOOK.

LE BREUIL
DEISE ABA
PLAN OF ATTACK

That quickly takes us down to three and a more than sensible dutch. We also have Jamie Codd on our side again, as he rides LE BREUIL, who he rode to win the other amateurs race here last season.

Not saying this has been the plan, then!

He’ll not be my solo play though.

That “honour” goes to PLAN OF ATTACK.

My reasons for this are, only one winner of this has come here having won last time out, in the last decade, so DEISE ABA may have shown his hand to early.

LE BREUIL has an official rating slightly to high for this, all 10 recent winners of this rated no higher than 143….he is 145.

That leaves me with PLAN OF ATTACK, who ran a belter to finish third in the Paddy Power Chase just before New Year.

H he has just four runs over fences, winning two and placing in the other two.

DUTCH

LE BREUIL
DEISE ABA
PLAN OF ATTACK

20/80

PLAN OF ATTACK

REVIEW: I was spitting fur when Elliott took RAVENHILL out of this as he would have won it with ease.

He won it anyway, with MILAN NATIVE, and the problem for me doing this kind of thing the day before racing is that the Market can suddenly bring one in that I’ve cut loose.

Had the horse been a single figure price the evening before, he’d have been ion a four horse dutch and, because of Elliott’s record with staying chasers, most likely my 20/80, too but, as I always say, if my uncle had been born a woman, he’d have been my aunt.

We got a profit off the 80 as PLAN OF ATTACK came home fourth @ 10/1 so it could have been much worse!

About Ron.Robinson

Ron.Robinson

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