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Cheltenham Special Review – Day 4

It could have been stunning….it should have been stunning!

On the Wednesday of the 2018 Festival, Post Racing members took over £250,000 off the layers and had the first four advices won on this day, they’d have done the same, or better.

If only life was like that!

TRIUMPH HURDLE

Not a race for Profiling really as we a bunch of four year olds all, bar two, carrying 11st.

The first thing I’d do would be to rule out the two Mullins fillies at the bottom and from there it’s basically looking at trends as opposed to stats, when looking for the winner of this.

Last year this threw up a shock result.

PENTLAND HILLS went racing with the lowest RPR of any winner in the last 10 years….139….when normally you need at least 150 and this season I’m going to start the search for this winner by taking those with that higher rating:

ALLMANKIND (157)
ASPIRE TOWER (159)
A WAVE OF THE SEA (154)
CERBERUS (152)
GOSHEN (157)
SIR PSYCHO (154)
SOLO (159)

I’ll now take what looks a solid stat and I have probably mentioned this every year since they introduced the Fred Winter and took the lower rated horses away from this race. The Fred Winter came into being in 2005 and 13 of the 15 winners of this race since, have been 10/1 or shorter so from that first short list, we’ll remove those trading bigger right now:

ALLMANKIND (157)
ASPIRE TOWER (159)
GOSHEN (157)
SOLO (159)

ASPIRE TOWER arrives having fallen last time out, when 1/3 to beat A WAVE OF THE SEA and I do not want a faller last time out on my mind…just like I ruled CHAMP out of the RSA for the same reason!

ALLMANKIND (157)
GOSHEN (157)
SOLO (159)

Unsurprisingly, they are the front three on the tissue right now but a dutch will produce a profit so I’ll go down that road.

Flat speed is essential, and eight of the last 10 winners were by a Group 1 winning sire and for my solo play I’d have to look to one of ALLMANKIND and GOSHEN.

SOLO looked awesome on debut but I immediately suggested to the membership that we look to him to win the Arkle next year. His sire was an out and out NH horse, whilst GOSHEN is by multiple Group 1 winner, AUTHORIZED and ALLMANKIND is by German Derby winner SEA THE MOON.

Splitting this pair comes down to how recently they visited a racecourse. All 10 of the last 10 winners had raced no more than eight weeks ago (56 days), and that stat makes it more difficult, if we take it at face value, as he last raced nearly 10 weeks ago so my solo play is, GOSHEN

DUTCH

ALLMANKIND (157)
GOSHEN (157)
SOLO (159)

20/80

GOSHEN

REVIEW: Nobody needs me to tell them what happened here. We would have been celebrating the most impressive Winner of the Festival had GOSHEN not unshipped his jockey at the last.

As punters we’ll have been there many times before but this was harder to swallow than most because I’d got on at 9/2 on the day SOLO won on his debut. I reasoned GOSHEN would have beaten what SOLO beat far more easily and backed my judgement.

COUNTY HURDLE

In the last 10 years it has been well worth relying on five and six year olds. They have taken seven of the last 10 running’s of the County Hurdle.

ELDORADO ALLEN
EMBITTERED
CHRISTOPHER WOOD
STOLEN SILVER
SCARAMANGA
BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP
ADJALI
ZANZA
TIGER TAP TAP
CIEL DE NEIGE
THATSY
BEAT THE JUDGE
SAINT ROI
ELUSIVE BELLE
TIGER VOICE
LETHAL STEPS

Next I’m looking at those weight ranges and eight of the last 10 winners went into that winners enclosure carrying between 10st 6lb and 11st 6lb so we’ll remove those outside those weight bandings:

STOLEN SILVER
SCARAMANGA
BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP
ADJALI
ZANZA
TIGER TAP TAP
CIEL DE NEIGE
THATSY
BEAT THE JUDGE
SAINT ROI
ELUSIVE BELLE
TIGER VOICE
LETHAL STEPS

Next we move back to the Market place and whilst nine of the last 10 winners have been a double figure price, five of them 20/1 or bigger.

Only two of those winners have been bigger than 20/1 though so for the purposes of this we’ll remove all those currently trading bigger than 20/1:

STOLEN SILVER
BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP
ADJALI
CIEL DE NEIGE
THATSY
SAINT ROI
ELUSIVE BELLE

Takes us down to seven.

Dan Skelton has won three of the last four running’s of this but none of those listed above come from his yard but with Willie Mullins having won four of the last 10 County Hurdles, and Ireland having won six of those 10, I’m going to suggest that we simply now look to the Mullins runners to shortlist:

BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP (141)
CIEL DE NEIGE (139)
SAINT ROI (137)

I am more than happy to dutch that trio in such a race.

The figure in brackets is their official rating. The significance of that is that eight of the last 10 winners were rated no higher than 139 and so my solo play would be one of either CIEL DE NEIGE or SAINT ROI.

I’m going to select the horse carrying the least weight of the two, SAINT ROI. Five of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st and this extremely lightly raced horse, that will be running in the winning most colours this week, ridden by the leading jockey, will do for me.

DUTCH

BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP (141)
CIEL DE NEIGE (139)
SAINT ROI (137)

20/80

SAINT ROI – WON 11/2

REVIEW: The perfect antidote for what happened earlier!

You know the old flat racing saying, “this was a Group horse in a Handicap”….well, that applies here.

I’d not be at all surprised to see him campaigned as a Champion Hurdle horse next season.

ALBERT BARTLETT

Six and seven year olds dominate this, eight of the last 10 winners:

AOINE
CAT TIGER
COBBLER’S WAY
FOXY JACKS
FURY ROAD
HARRY SENIOR
HOUSE ISLAND
JANIDIL
KILTEALY BRIGGS
LATEST EXHIBITIION
MONKFISH
OSCAR ACADEMY
REDFORD ROAD
SEMPO
THE WOLF
THYME HILL

Everything carts 11st 5lb so we take a good look at how the market has had an effect on the result of this race.

The last two winners have won at 50/1 and 33/1, with the shortest price winner since 2013 being our very own UNOWHATIMEANHARRY.

As bonkers as some of those SP’s have been, we can look at taking out the front nine on the tissue as seven of the last 10 had been….not a lot else I can do at this point.

COBBLER’S WAY
FURY ROAD
HARRY SENIOR
JANIDIL
LATEST EXHIBITIION
MONKFISH
SEMPO
THYME HILL

Down to eight.

I’d want to be coming into this with a front three finish last time out and it’s also the case that five arrived having won before coming here.

COBBLER’S WAY
HARRY SENIOR
JANIDIL
LATEST EXHIBITIION
MONKFISH
SEMPO
THYME HILL

Down to seven….and six of the seven arrive having won last time out….this is an absolute cracker of a race.

I’m actually struggling to get this down now but it’s also true that eight of the last 10 winners had won over two miles five furlongs, or further:

LATEST EXHIBITIION
MONKFISH
SEMPO
THYME HILL

We have four left

I’ve no hesitation in setting up a four horse dutch.

The Irish trained horses have won four of the last six running’s and with three of those in that quartet coming from the Emerald Isle, I’ll expect one of those to win it.

For my solo play I’ll side with MONKFISH, whose trainer, Willie Mullins, took this three years ago with PENHILL. The trainers of the other three are 0-7 between them in this, not even had one p-lace.

DUTCH

LATEST EXHIBITIION
MONKFISH
SEMPO
THYME HILL

20/80

MONKFISH – WON 5/1

REVIEW: Perfect Profiling, if I may say so myself.

The four in the dutch finished 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th….and had FURY ROAD, the horse that finished third, not baulked THYME HILL, we’d have had the first three home.

The solo selection got up in the final strides and going into the Gold Cup my confidence was sky high.

THE GOLD CUP

Age grouping cannot really be applied here as we have a good spread across those aged 7-9….if I was to favour one the others, it would be eight year olds, who have won four of the last 10.

I may revisit that if I need to, for a solo play.

My ante-post vouchers for SANTINI date back to 2018, one of those long range punts we sometimes get involved in (many will recall SPRINTER SACRE, before he jumped a fence in public).

Seven of the last 10 winners were in the front three on the tissue so that’s the dutch:

AL BOUM PHOTO
SANTINI
DELTA WORK

I have to stick with SANTINI for my solo play as he is trained by the man who has saddled 10 in this across the last decade, won it twice and placed with three.

DUTCH

AL BOUM PHOTO
SANTINI
DELTA WORK

20/80

SANTINI

REVIEW: When SANTINI ran third in the 2018 Albert Bartlett I advised members he’d win the 2019 RSA and 2020 Gold Cup. I punted him a big double figure prices for both and have made a seriously tidy profit off the e.w. bets placed.

But both the RSA and Gold Cup have been the most frustrating races I have ever watched. He should have won both (not my pocket talking), and if AL BOUM PHOTO ever beats him again, I’ll bare my backside in a Burtons window (given we still have a High Street left in Britain come the day).

If he had not been squeezed up between the last two fences and, had he not had to switch after the last, he would have won this race.

Henderson knows what he has to do next time….and he’ll get it done.

FOXHUNTERS CHASE

Anything aged 7-11 could win this and this is not a race I take seriously for punting purposes. If this were a Monday at Kelso, I’d not even give it a second glance.

Seven of the last 10 winners were in the front four on the tissue:

MINELLA ROCCO
BILLAWAY
HAZEL HILL
STAKER WALLACE

If I were to bet here, I’d just dutch MINELLA ROCCO and STAKER WALLACE, because they have two professional jockeys masquerading as amateurs up.

REVIEW: 66/1 winner….don’t say you were not warned off here!!

GRAND ANNUAL

Last year this was won by a 66/1 shot, aged 12….and all logic/stats/trends etc could not have found that winner.

The dominant age groups, traditionally, are eight and nine year olds, as they have won six of the last 10 of these:

GREAT FIELDS
MARRACUDJA
CAPELAND
PALOMA BLUE
MCGROARTY
CAID DU LIN
WINTER ESCAPE
ADRRASTOS
THE BAY BIRCH

The weight range again takes us right across the range, with no dominant grouping to suggest we utilise it for Profiling.

The market tells us very little, too. We have seen winners of this in the last 10 years priced up at 66/1, 28/1, 16/1, 16/1, 20/1, 40/1, 16/1….the race has become very much the “needle in a haystack” event.

That is exemplified by the fact none of the last 10 winners had won a race in the season they took this so with a shrug of the shoulders, I’ll remove those from that list, that have:

CAPELAND
PALOMA BLUE
WINTER ESCAPE

There you have it, a dutch!…but do we have a needle?

If we take official ratings as a guide, nine of the last 10 winners were rated no higher than 150 and the only qualifier here is WINTER ESCAPE….33/1

If you believe I’ve got Nostradamus capabilities, then go for it….me, I’ll just watch this one!

No bet race for me! If the winner is in that final three, I’ll be punching the air!

REVIEW: I just sat and watched another Gordon Elliott plot come off. He really is a heck of a trainer of steeplechasers!

Stuck top my no bet rule for these last three races and came away from this years four days in profit.

MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEY’S HURDLE

They really do finish the three days on a “low”, don’t they….Foxhunters, a trappy handicap, and a Conditional jockeys race.

It’s like, “how can we get the car park emptied so we can all get away for tea?”….

Nine of the last 10 winners were aged five, or six….that’s the horses, not the jockeys.

FIVE O’CLOCK
COLUMN OF FIRE
ESPOIR DE ROMAY
ASSEMBLE
UMBRIGADO
MY SUSTER SARAH
FRONT VIEW
ILIKEDWAYURTHINKIN
THE BOSSES OSCAR
ANYTHING WILL DO
PILEON
ECCO
HAPPYGOLUCKY
EVERYBREATHYOUTAKE
GREAT WHITE SHARK
ESCARIA TEN

Seven of the last 10 winners were located in the first six on the tissue:

FIVE O’CLOCK (3)
COLUMN OF FIRE (7)
FRONT VIEW (3)
ILIKEDWAYURTHINKIN (9)
THE BOSSES OSCAR (3)
PILEON (3)

Down to six.

In brackets is the number of runs each horse has had over hurdles. This is possibly significant because nine of the last 10 winners of this race had not been racing over hurdles more than eight times so, we lose the current second favourite:

FIVE O’CLOCK (3)
COLUMN OF FIRE (7)
FRONT VIEW (3)
THE BOSSES OSCAR (3)
PILEON (3)

Five of the last 10 winners of this race have been Irish trained with four of those winners coming from the yard of Mullins, or Elliott….two apiece.

FIVE O’CLOCK (3) – Mullins
COLUMN OF FIRE (7) – Elliott
THE BOSSES OSCAR (3) – Elliott

A dutch.

For the 20/80 I’ll opt for the lowest weighted of the three, THE BOSSES OSCAR.

Six of the last 10 winners carried no more than 11st 5lb so more in hope than anything else, I’ll add some extra weight to this one by selecting it.

DUTCH

FIVE O’CLOCK (3) – Mullins
COLUMN OF FIRE (7) – Elliott
THE BOSSES OSCAR (3) – Elliott

20/80

THE BOSSES OSCAR

REVIEW: Watch this race back, and see how unlucky THE BOSSES OSCAR was not to finish a lot closer. Not saying he would have won, but he would most certainly have been placed, had he not been hampered by the faller at the last. Once he got running up the hill again, nothing was finishing faster and I’ve already got him pencilled in for next years Festival.

He has finished 5th, beaten less than four lengths, despite that issue at the last.

In 2018 Elliott ran SIRE DU BERLAIS in this race (4th), before coming back in 2019 with it and winning the Pertemps. Look out for THE BOSSES OSCAR running in the qualifier at Leopardstown at the end of December and finishing 6th!

About Ron.Robinson

Ron.Robinson

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