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Jockey's Choices

Today I was looking for potential Mark Johnson winners at York and noticed that Joe fanning hadn't got a ride there.  I thought this was strange so looked at Newbury and Newmarket expecting to see him riding a Johnson hotpot but no.  He's gone to Hamilton.  Why??  One reason is he more a northern jockey and has good rides at Thirsk tomorrow.  he has a couple of obvious chances at Hamilton and he surely has not missed riding at York Newmarket or Newbury for nothing. Perhaps one of his bigger priced rides has a good chance and he did not want to miss that.  His rides are:

Highly Focussed won 4/1.

Fanning had one winner at Thirsk the following day at 3/1.  So his trip up north avoiding York gave him three winners in two days.

 

I am tempted to put the others using Fire Fighting in the 7.30 in ew doubles and trebles  with a small ew acc as well.

On the same vein look at the top jockeys who have gone for rides and Newbury and Newmarket in preference to York. The notable ones are  Jamie Spencer Adam Kirby and Jim Crowley atNewbury. Ones to watch are 1.35 Red Armada, .10 Habub, 2.45 light Angel, 3.20 Encrypted20/80, 3.55 Immoral 20/80, 4.25 Dubai tradition, with a 20/80 on Military Move was  10/1 now 7/1.   4.55 Prejudice with 20/80 on BallyLemon,

In the 5.30 I really fancy High Acclaim mainly because of the jockey Cieren Fallon sounds like a good jockey and looking at his record he is.  103 rides  52 of those he was placed in the first four and he won 15 and was 2nd 18 times.

Big Priced Winner?

I think I may have spotted a value bet today. When looking at Bowson Fred in the 3.50 at Beverley I noticed that my favourite trainer/jockey combination O'Meara/ Tudhope had Billy Dylan running. When looking at its form I noticed that it is usually ridden by Conor McGovern or David Nolan but never by Danny Tudhope.  On current form he does not look much but today Tudhope is up and on 1st Sept last year this horse won a class 4 at Chester.  worth a punt at 16/1 with betfair.  I also note that Van Gerwan is in this race and this horse won over CD last September with Danny Tudhope riding so we may need to keep an eye out for that one soon.  Oh dear  I have just noticed that D Allen is not riding for Tim Easterby on Excessable so he must think that the one he has gone to ride Archimedes a CD winner has a better chance . lets hope he is not shouting Eureka after the race.

Just goes to show that you can read to much into jockey changes.  Billy Dylan for O Meara Tudhope was last beaten 12 lengths. Van Gerwen was 10th but only beaten 41/2 lengths. david Allen was right to ride Archimedes 5th instead of Easterbys Excessible 8th.  Bowsen  Fred  was fourth but the race was won by a 3 yr old at 12:1. Ridden by Graham Lee who does seem to get more than his fair share of big priced winners

4.00 Redcar has another strange trainer jockey combination. David O’Meara has the well fancied Star Shield and Tudhope has ridden this one the last twice being 5th and 2nd in class 3s over one mile. yet Daniel Tudhope    has chosen to ride Defence Treaty, a 3 yr old that has never run over a mile before, for Richard Fahey.  Personally I prefer Irv who won a class 3 before running down the field in a class 2 and has now dropped to a class 4.  At 14/1 that has to be the value bet.

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