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Overnight Market Movers

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Well clearly a lot more to it than just a move in the market Ron. Lots of them have been small where I would have thought 'nothing to see here' in ways of significance, but I'm guessing you apply some of the same criteria to MM as you do to ratings to narrow the selection

I've posted season end stats in the stats section, aswell as putting up the season by season summary, though these are all over the place over the years for NH, which is why I observed NH harder to do well in with standard level stakes

The next thing is to try and get P/L for MM's but by applying 20/80 bets for all. I can only do that based on bf place prices given on timeform page, and I'll do that tp standard placings, rather than enhanced, and also even to short odds on pl prices even if it appears the price is too short to mke a profit when placing only, which was tactic AG advocated at times to eliminate total stake loss

So, I have gone over the O/N MM's as a 20/80 play. Recorded to bf SP and to traditional place arrangements rather than any enhanced places or difference in their place SP to reflect that

This confirms the straight win strategy as best

All- 166(303)/578 +120.99pts, +14.75pts as 20/80 play

Rated 61(122)/256 +49.81pts, +14.7pts as 20/80 play

 

The morning movers will be done, but frankly this is taking some time, and will take longer by reworking as 20/80 play as well as place only play

Hi Gary

so that's 166 winners, 303 placed(incl the 166) out of 578 selections ?

yes

So now it's time to add the Morning Movers, all and rated, but done as place only, to betfair SP and level stakes. Clearly many place prices are very very short, however

 

All 269/616 -104.65pt loss

Rated 110/303 -81.16pt loss

I know ron thought place only on this would improve matters given their thumping losses as straight win bets. On all morning movers, place only eliminates on 20.7pts of loss, and on rated races, loses another 1.3pts compared to win only losses

Unless thre are major obvious pockets, morning movers are a disaster, at least in the first season, and for NH. Not sure what difference variable stakes would make here but avoid seems to be the wisest counsel for now

Morning movers as 20/80 play

 

All -125.07pt loss

Rated -88.8pt loss

Ugly figures for this no matter the play, straight win, 20/80 or place only- which Ron thought might be the way to go. first year only so it may be in time these numbers are the outlier, but not sure i'd be holding my breath on that

Thanks for sorting that out, Gary.

What I'm going to do is look at how to cut back on the number of MMM's and see if we can sort out the wheat from the chaff.

Most definitely though, the OMM'S look the way to go for profit....something I believe we were aware of quite a while back.

It's a stark difference bearing in mind you'll be applying the same criteria to both overnight and morning movers. There is precious little difference in losses with morning, be it win, 20/80, place only

As for cutting back on the numbers- well, granted curtailed season, but all overnight selections 578, all morning 616

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