Wednesday , February 19 2020
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Post Boxing Day through January

Copying this over from the stats categorisation

Historically, post Boxing Day is always a tough period for the ratings/profits

I have gone over the period for various categories over the past few seasons to see how Season 19/20 is performing, given Ron's belief this year is better than others

Top Rated- all season avg SR 14.5% currently (though historically across both codes from 2012-13 for a few seasons it was approx 16%), Jan varies between around 12-14.7% avg. This season 17.77% SR for +2pts profit betfair SP, normal loss 20-40pts

Bottom Rated avg 9.77% currently, Jan varies around 7.7-9.2% avg. This season 6.66% SR for -89pt loss, normal -10 to -66 loss, though one season +39pts

Bottom Rated Fav (only 2 seasons of data) currently avg 31.5%, last Jan 36% SR +16pt profit, this season 20.67% -2.5pt loss

Given Ron's preference for the dutch and the fairly recent introduction of AG then this may be the area of most interest, as the last few seasons have shown an uplift of top 3 dutch SR%. Historically, across both codes, the avg was around 34-35% from aeound 2012 onwards, and of late avg around 40%. So NH top 3, since Season 16/17:

SR 40.43% +11pt level stakes profit bfsp, 46.15% +41.5pt level stakes and +11pt level stakes dutch, 40.88% -11pt loss and -16pt loss level stakes dutch

This season- 43.89% +62pt level stakes 3 bfps though decent price winners (30, 32.84, 19.5, 18.8, 22, 23.83, 21.23) -1.21pt loss level stakes dutch

However, top3 dutch was in profit at +14.2pt end of 19/1/20, and playing top 3 to level stakes would be +26pts better off at cut off 5/1/20

This is only first year of MM's:

so from 27/12 to 31/1 overnight MM's to betfair SP +44.5pts rated races only +0.7pts. Morning MM's +5pts (inc 2 big wins 25/1/20), rated +7pts. The overnights have tread water from mid Jan to end of month and def went backwards from 20th to 31st

Despite the odd great day with multiple winners for morning movers, to level stakes, the results speak for themselves, even though overall profit of a a few points in January

 

 

Profit this year is all I'm looking for, Gary.

It has been a different type of winter to date....if we've actually had one....and listening to Donald McCain talking about his season really did make sense.

The ground has been saturated for months now and, as he said, the horses actually get sick and tired of it and, the tracks themselves have been chewed up and been impossible to repair.

That anyone is making a profit right now (any level of profit), is superb.

We are going to start seeing big fields turning out as the ground dries out and that's going to make it difficult. My feeling is that the markets are going to be where most clues come from but, as we saw today, they were ridiculous....so much so, I felt compelled to send out an afternoon Newsletter....never done that before!

Taking certain periods....four weeks, five weeks, in isolation will show only what has happened in that small period and, as we know, this is a season long way of working. Right now your season long stats make for decent reading

MM(overnight, all) 129(246)/454 +26.9pt advised, +61.08pt bf SP
MM(overnight,rated) 43(94)/196 +5.12pt advised, +27.59pt bf SP

Taking BFSP is certainly the way to work and I've been hammering that home weekly. Anyone that has played the OMM's to BFSP has created a nice enough profit, to a level £10 stake, of £610.80

I'll keep emphasising the importance of the Market Movers and look to isolate even more, those that will be successful.

Last month I chose to post up "free stuff" on the website and purposely chose to work mainly with market movers in my top three rated. That meant several days with no selection and at the end of that month those horse produced a level £10 stake profit, to industry SP, of over £150.

All interesting stuff!!

Interesting indeed, hence trying to cover certain traits, as well as highlighting Jan/current/historic SR %'s and returns.

FYI, I haven't recorded today's morning movers, as being a pedant, the first email this morning for morning movers is the one that counts, not an email at 13.01 PM

 

Never let it be said that I am just here as a your 'yes' man 🙂

MM's picked up first few days of Feb though still broadly where they were Mid Jan

For me, the MM's are now integral. If the likes of yourself and Ron, can crunch the data i am certain, that without denigrating oneself to the "tipster" genre you can point us subscribers to a point where we are so much more confident of making money, then I'm happy. Which to be perfectly blunt is the ultimate aim.

As an aside, I love horse racing, however, the holy grail is... if I can make a little bit of butty doing what I love, hell yeah.

 

I've got mates who go watching City (Man) home and away and spend, without exaggeration, 000's per year. Which is fine. We spend the same amount on our pastime, we're gambling addicts. Go figure.

 

Just to clarify I don't spend 000's I break even at the worst, which makes my hobby/pastime, all of a sudden seem quite sane.

Last thing I need would be a "yes man", Gary! 😀👍

It's good you highlight the the good and the poor sides of what goes on here, as that should give those reading a proper steer as to where the profits are.

Right now everyone should be locking their banks and going nowhere near a layer though and when periods like this come along I'm in two minds....send it out, or just tell everyone it stinks....🤔

I prefer though, for people to see for themselves how things go and, also see for themselves when it's safe to go back in again.

The Market Movers are a seriously good way in, Warren, and I am constantly looking at how I need to change what we do, because racing changes. I'm already working on where we go next and I'll start trialing something in May, which we'll run for the entire flat season.

I think i have been here before. Ron says 'i prefer though for people to see for themselves how things go'. The problem with that imo is people subscribe to post racing to get the ratings and use them.  I cannot speak for all post racing members but feel there is a mentality that i have to have a bet and cannot take it when the figures produce winners and they are not on them.

Yesterday i didn't even look at the ratings ( that's not disrespectful Ron). I had a look at the M.M's and had a couple of bets. I also used my own methods and had one bet which lost. I think it would be better if you said to members now is the time to stop using the figures and i will put them back up when i believe they can perform. To put the figures out and then have a post mortem on  them the next day might well be rubbing salt into wounds of those who HAD to play yesterday. I know this is not a tipping service and people use the information as they wish. Perhaps i have got the members wrong and i do believe only a small percentage will be using everything at the moment. No doubt Ron we are very reliant on  you getting the ratings correct for us to make a profit. I also realise it puts a lot of pressure on you to do what i have just said. This has been a tough NH season for me and i believe i am a very conservative punter. Conditions will come back in our favour and the most important thing is this difficult period has not decimated the bank.

Hi Ian

I'd like to think I make it absolutely clear that people should consider not betting and most certainly advise I'm not doing so, when I smell a rat.

I don't think I've ever sent out a third Newsletter advising of how ridiculous the situation is, as I did on Thursday and I've had less than a handful of bets myself.

The main reason I send my work out is simply so that members can gauge for themselves when things have stabilised again, and that it's safe to use them.

For sure, people subscribe for my work with the intention of using it but, at the same time, I'll make it absolutely crystal clear that the situation dictates, they do not use them.

It is a conundrum for me though, I'll admit. I imagine Gary finds them useful for stats purposes, and looking at past data to see if this situation is mirrored in the past. If so, this information can be passed on to the membership....and holidays can be booked!

Sorry to hear the winter has been hard going for you but I've stated weekly that the OMM's, punted to a level £10 stake, are showing a superb profit? To the end of last week, around £200 per month, average.

I have advised that when applying rated races to Market Movers, which then turn up in my top three Rated horses, in January a profit of £150+ was achieved.

Last month the Market Movers produced some huge priced winners and even the MMM's went into profit.

All I can do is keep pointing members in the direction the profits are coming from, and advising that Gary's stats are read and digested. They are showing, as always, what is working, and what isn't.

I take absolutely no offence at your not having even looked at the Ratings yesterday, Ian...a good decision, well made, sir!

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