Tuesday , August 20 2019
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Steady as you go

So Ron receives messages of Boom as the 40/1 shot goes in. Congratulations to all who got it.  I wasn't one of them and will give you my reason why i wasn't and why i only made a small profit yesterday.  The weather was all over the place and Ron sent out a message saying we should bin Haydock.  Ron added notes to the 4.0'clock race saying 'a lightly raced Balding horse that i cannot produce an accurate figure for currently trades as favourite. IF( note the if) you opt to play this race you know you have a huge fly in the ointment'. There was also a market mover in this race so you had a four horse dutch plus this one he couldn't get an angle on. I decided to play the market mover as a 20/80 as my only play.  Would i play this way again? You bet i would.

I also left out the dutch in the 4.30 as there were 5 top rated on 9+ and three on 8+ . I played a 20/80 on the market mover and made a profit. Would i play that way again? You  bet i would. I noticed Astech played the top three as they appeared. Do you recommend that way of playing Ron when there are horses on same rating?

I had a go in the two rated races at Ripon and again made a small profit. Happy with my days winnings but not shouting Boom.  What about today. I am going to play the national hunt races and have another look at 5.30. Market Rasen is expecting light rain so we should be ok.  Uttoxeter is also expecting light rain.  Goodwood, have a yellow weather warning so i think its a no go there. Haydock have light rain from 12-4pm then a couple of hours of heavy rain.  As the title says steady as you go.

Always good to hear that people are on these big winners. Come on and tell us what you are doing before racing starts and help us out a bit. The silence is deafening.  Astech looks the way to go and if you can get on late and can stomach the masses of bets(dont forget they don't bet) you can only be a winner. I am going away for over two weeks next Thursday so i miss out on the Blue Bloods meeting. On my return i will give a lot of thought to subscribing to Astech. One or two on here have had a say both for and some slightly against. Any further info would help me and i am sure others decide if they are prepared to take the plunge. Good luck today.

 

Hi Ian

Not a single BOOM actually, just quick messages from folk that had played it and backed a winner at a price they'll very rarely get on and win.

We have lashing down rain everywhere now and we are going to see some silly results today. I'll doubtless be sending out a "bin" messages again for Haydock because this rain is set to be here for 24 hours minimum.

Everyone has the going description "as was" when I sent out my work and, if it changes significantly, it's not a difficult decision to make for anyone to make that decision for themselves.

Looking at the race you are discussing. The play was never going to include the "fly in the ointment"? I merely pointed out it was there, lightly raced and trading favourite.

The only horses to consider playing were the top three and Market Mover? I always add an "if" because I have no idea what races each individual member is considering playing, or how? Some might only work with the better class of race, some might work with everything, some might just use the Market Movers but it's all down to each individual as to how they play.

Astech Gold made a decision they were going to use everything I put in a Newsletter, to gauge where the profits came from. They have continued to use all the information provided, as profits come from everywhere.

So, each morning they apply what is in the Stake Management section of the website, create the plays they advise and post them up on their LI page by 10-30am.

If a member then decides to cherry pick their own bets then they'll not mirror the profits or losses made by AG, when they make a profit or a loss.

Have you set up a tracker and input the horses provided? I was getting plenty of messages coming ion when SPIRIT WARNING went in at Chelmsford (6-30pm), some having got on at 7/1.

My job here is to produce as accurate a set of ratings for each race as I can, to watch every single race and look for clues that might benefit us at some point down the line. Some will have the luxury of being able to play the lost and make great profits, some will have to cherry pick, some will be in a position to play everything but opt not to and all will make varying degrees of profit.

What info on Astech Gold would you like? What they offer is two things. First and foremost, their Stake Management software, which effectively does everything for you.

Second, they take my work each morning and produce a list of bets based on the Stake management criteria set out on my website.

That's it, really?

If you have any questions at all, give Andy a call. He will take great pleasure in discussing everything with you. He loves what they do at that end, all out as much as I love doing what I do at this end.

Thanks for the reply Ron.  I had a long discussion with Andy  quite a while ago and decided to do my own thing with the ratings and i am reasonably happy with what i am doing. It's the market movers i struggle a bit with so i am taking a long look at what might be best. At the moment i only use them in rated races, and only the over night ones. As i said i will make a decision on astech early July.

The 4.00 i left alone because i felt as you couldn't get a correct rating on the Balding horse it was risky. Totally my decision. I wold also do the same on Irish horses and can see why we don't touch 3.y.olds  in early season.

Some will play the lot, some will cherry pick,some will be in a position but opt not to and all will make varying degrees of profit. But you know what most will do, tell you naff all what they do.  This is not a forum i will post again on unless we have some sharing.  One way traffic is not what forums are all about in my opinion.

Ian you are right about deafening silence. Of interest is that the T factor stats can be a bit more reliable for flat over jumps, and not sure if those that got 75 picked that as a sole play or as part of the dutch. Certainly top 3 with TS* would have been of interest possibly.Top 3 rated with a minimum of TS(so could also include TS* TSH TSH* to) made profit in 15, 16, minor loss of -0.75pts in 17 and bigger loss in 18 of -34.95pts but still up +62.31pts over 4 years and likely to increase this season too after that win

 

But I understand why you may feel reluctant to post again as it is a bit deflating when trying to establish and foster a club mentality, and failing though not through any fault of our own! But I think a careful mix of AG and some level stakes micro info should cover most potential single focus/tremd/system downswing

Because of people like Gary and Ron i will put my toys back in my pram and try again.  I am away on Thursday for a while so you will not have to put up with me for a bit

Ron quite correctly gave out no ratings for Saturday,and will give no ratings today for Goodwood. He also made it clear that the Friday night ratings would be seriously compromised if the rain came, which it did. Anybody who used the ratings on Friday night have a gambling problem in my opinion. I know there is a lot of people who must bet. !!!

Saturday. 17 non runners at Haydock, 3 different going changes at Beverley, 20 non runners at Chepstow, 10 non runners at Newmarket. . Its hardly rocket science that something is amiss.  Now Ron is going to put notes about going description. Really !. Ron is a great teacher but surely we are past Janet and John book 2.

The  problems i have with going descriptions is this. Some use something i think is called a penetrometer and give readings. Where do they use it up the straight, on the back straight, under the rails, on the stand side etc. Nobody seems to know. They also use irrigation, is this in selective areas and how much is put down. Some in my opinion go out with an old stick and say the going is good with a good covering of grass.  No doubt about it, its not good but as Ron says its the best we have got and if the weather has been fairly constant we will be winning.

Ron has stated today he is going out for a walk. Please take the hint and wait while he gets going that his 11 stats have a good chance of competing on a level playing field (if only).  I am only trying to help people by giving my opinions. I am certainly not trying to pinch your ideas. I am sure there are people who have forgotten more about racing than i have, subscribed. Lets pool our resources and get the forum going.

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