Monday , July 22 2019
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Trying To Help New Members

First of all welcome to all the newbies.  I think you have made a great decision but please listen to Ron and have a word with the Astech people (even if you don't subscribe to them the talk is invaluable in my opinion).

It's well known i am no fan of flat racing and find it very difficult to win in the summer but with Ron and his work i am not getting mullered. I have been out of the country for a few weeks and started back up Saturday and got a hiding. I had a better day yesterday but made a small loss.  Astech made a profit yesterday and this is how good they are in making profit out of a day where 3 out of four rated races i used lost and only two winners but five placed out of nine in the market movers.

Here's how i play the figures.  I bet the market movers 20/80 on Betfair.  The 20 is the win part and the 80 is the extra place part on Betfair.  So if there is a nine runner race you get paid on the 4th position.  I will only use the place part if it covers the 20 win part. Today for instance i will not back Takumi for a place as it doesn't cover the win part. I will back it win only. Astech will back win and place.  I then use the rated races top 3 dutch and involve a bottom rated favourite as the fourth horse.. I would also use a four horse dutch if a market mover was outside the top three rated. I strongly advice you use these methods and do not back top rated on their own or have forecasts on top two rated.  Somebody with the experience of Ron can do things like that as he has a feel for races. I have not but would take notice if Ron advised something in the notes. Do not use five runner or less races and watch the going as this affects badly the figures. Bin them if you have doubts re going.  I have stated the obvious very badly here and i hope Gary and Ron come in and give better advice.  I will always try and help and share with the members but its not the norm on this forum

The most important advice i can give is this. Please stick with it. The way you start backing with Ron could well be foreign to you, and there is no guarantee of profit. Keep to what is being advised and how to play it. You are not going to be winning thousands in your first month but you have put yourself in with a chance of at least taking a few quid from the enemy. Good luck to all of you.

I will try to post something tomorrow or later, as i have just uploaded the stats performance for the week, flat and NH.

What I will say is that we had the chance to learn something, given the recent testimonial from a returned member who now says he is making a killing or some such other phrase. Fantastic that he donated to charity, but not a word for other members, new or old, still not cracking it here.

 

So many questions could have been addressed in help

 

how long was he a member previously, what was he doing to lose? Ratings? Of interest? Variable stakes? Class? Course?

How long did he go away to lick his wounds?

 

What made him return?

Was he using online tutorials, books, websites to increase his knowledge?

Was he using other paid for services or using other free resources?

What exactly is he doing to bridge the gap seeing as he refers to being between gambling and trading?

Is AG a major part of what he studies?

 

Is the betfair market activity graph projection being used? Is he seeking prices to be matched and going to work or sitting full time in front of a screen which most members are unable to do?

This was an ideal opportunity to generate knowledge among fellow members to ensure we don't churn members, retaining them and growing, buidling a proper club, generating profit for most, genuinely investing in horses for the club (not just clover club stuff) and giving much more money to our own charity preferences, but...

 

 

Ron and the Astech team are always looking for ways of improving what we do.  If you look at yesterdays work from Astech i think that shows what i mean.

Today we have a fairly quiet day with now  7 market movers (one non runner) and a couple of rated races. Ron sent out the info at 6.50.  I start looking at the work around 7.30 and i will make decisions up to racing starting and can wait until a few minutes before race time if i want. I am in a good position because i am retired.  I do think people who have to be out at work between 07.00 -08.00 hrs are in a difficult position. I am sorry but there is nothing that can be done about that.  The new way of working with lowest priced 3.y.o's under 7/1 could mean you miss winners or back horses that were under 7's at o7.30 but move  beyond that price during the day. I will let Ron advise you on that.   You also have a slight problem with bottom rated favourites.  Take the 4.40T today.  At the moment Wentworth Falls is just favourite making  the race a four horse dutch race.  If it goes out and Muscika becomes favourite we have only a three horse dutch.

I am not trying to complicate things for you. However,there are times when you look at results and think how has Astech come to that conclusion. I am starting to use the 3.y.o's from today so i will post later as to how i am getting on.  Still the advice is keep at it and you will get the rewards.

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