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Stake Management

Astech Gold is a stake management software that enables the user to manage their staking and keep control of their betting.

They started using the Post Racing ratings to stress test the software in 2017 and on August 19th, 2017, they went live.

During the period they have been working with the Ratings they have themselves monitored several micro-systems and provided the following for members to use in order to create profit.

If you would like to know more about ASTECH GOLD and the services they provide click here to visit their website.

Post Racing – Astech Gold Guidelines.

Introduction

When Ron at Post Racing asked us to apply Astech Gold to his ratings we developed guidelines most appropriate for his information based on data and trends.

We include every rated race. However, the final decision in terms of the Selection, Bet Type and amount invested is entirely down to the individual and the guide lines outlined below will be subject to other factors including market forces.

No system can guarantee profits or losses but the Astech Gold Programme will recommended the most appropriate stakes based on each individual’s Operating Profile enabling control, stability and management of their bank.

The Sequence Selection Process shows the order in which selections will be identified for the Post Racing screenshots.

We have also added a Latest Information page link on the Astech Gold website which indicates the types of bet we will be using for each race and the number of places where applicable.

Selection Sequence Process

Rated Races

For the purposes of Post Racing we use the top 3 rated selections or in the event of a non-runner the next in the list to create a Dutch 3 bet.

If Post Racing suggests a set of different selections then we may use a Dutch 4 bet.

If, for example, Post Racing suggests selections 2, 3 and 4, we will cover selections 1, 2, 3, and 4. However, there is a rider to this which is explained further down.

If a 20/80 is suggested and it is one of the top 3 rated selections we do not include it as a separate investment.

Our recommendation would be to do either a Dutch 3 or a 20/80, subject to the odds.

Note: We will not use races of less than 6 runners.

Rated Races: Bottom Rated Favourites 

Bottom Rated Favourites. This trend is vital to reduce losses and increase profits.

Check if any of the rated races have any bottom rated selections that are trading favourite, joint or co favourite.

We are only looking at those at the bottom. So if the two bottom rated selections were -35 and -38 we would only consider the -38.

If the two or more bottom rated selections were -38 then both would be considered.

Remember the maximum number of selections for dutching would be 4, so if we already have 4 selections from the Rated Races as outlined above then we would not invest in a dutch bet in this race as potentially we would have 5 selections.

Alternatively, a profit may be possible by investing in a dutch 4 and backing the bottom rated favourite separately.

Market Movers

We will consider Market Movers that appear in the first morning newsletter sent out by Post Racing. If a second newsletter is sent out we will only consider those that are in Rated Races.

A number of trends are starting to emerge and if after applying the Rated Races and Bottom Rated Favourites criteria, there are still only 3 selections then a Market Mover may be introduced to make a Dutch 4 bet.

For those Market Movers that are not in Rated Races we only consider using Risk Levels 1 to 3 based on price and market movement.

The filters applied to Market Movers are complex!

Members of Astech Gold will be able to see those selections that have had the filter applied in the Rated Races through the ‘Latest Information’ page link on their Accounts Page.

Of course you can use the Market Movers in whichever way suits you but the screenshots that will be sent to Post Racing will only include those selections that have ‘made the cut’ through Astech Gold’s filtering process.

Note: We will not use selections in races of less than 6 runners.

Rated Races: Same Rating

Data indicates that when the 3rdand 4thlisted in the Rated Races have the same rating the 4thrated horse produces the same investment level returns as the 3rdrated selection.

If you already have a Dutch 4 following the previous trends then ignore this.

However, if you wish to create a Dutch 4, which we will do for screenshot purposes, then consider including the 4thor even 5thor more listed selection if it has the same rating as the 3rdin the ratings and include the selection with the lowest odds.

Rated Races vis-a-vis Profiling

Post Racing will on occasions, if historical data allows, provide selections for a race through profiling.

For example, a particular race may indicate that the first or second favourite has always won this race in the past or nothing under 10/1 has ever won.

From these trends selections will be provided that qualify and if this occurs we may have different selections to those provided by the ratings and exceptionally we may do two Dutch bets for the same race.

As long as the overall profit indicated, covers more than one and a half times the overall investment, then it may be considered.

If profiling suggests only a single selection then a 20/80 bet may be introduced. However, if the profiling has highlighted 2, 3 or 4 selections prior to a single selection being identified, then we would introduce a 2. 3 or 4 Dutching bet.

Alternatively we may introduce the 20/80 selection to create a Dutch 4 bet if, after applying all other options as outlined above, provides a Dutch 3.

Note: We will not use selections in races of less than 6 runners. 

Rated Races: Flat Races: 3 year olds

Only consider those with an SP of less than 7/1.

Include any 3 year old which is not included in top 3 rated or is a bottom rated favourite ( as they are already covered) and include as a Dutch 4.

If more than one 3 year old qualifies in addition to any that may be in the top 3 or are a bottom rated favourite, then only consider the lowest odds selection under 7/1.

Rated Races: Lay Bets

We will include any Lay Bets as long as they are not the bottom rated, joint or co-favourite and are not in a Dutch bet investment.

The Astech Gold programme will determine what your liability will be based on your Odds entered and Operating Profile and you can decide whether to include or not.

Rated Races: Skull and Crossbones

There is nothing in the data to date, to suggest leaving these races out.

Of Interest

‘Of Interest’ selections are included and we apply 20/80 bets to these.

We use bookmakers best odds guaranteed and first passed the post and revised placings if the result is amended.

For the place part of the bet we use maximum places on Betfair subject to the place odds and look to recover, in the main, the amount placed on the win part of the bet.

The Risk level applied is subject to price and market movements and we only consider using Risk Levels 1 to 3.

Note: We will not use selections in races of less than 6 runners.

Screenshots

Screenshots sent to Post Racing, will show Dutched Races including any Market Movers that have ‘made the cut’ using the filter which may be added and the Of Interest selections.

 ‘Binned’ Messages

There are occasions, when due to going changes, the ratings sent out by Post racing are not appropriate and the races are then ‘binned’.

If we receive a message to that effect we will not use the Rated Races or if we have started we will cease. If we have already invested in any of those ‘binned’ races they will be included in the screenshots.

Stake Limits

As a member of Astech Gold you are able to limit the amount invested on each bet as a percentage of your bank in your Operating Profile. The Dutch bets will still be calculated within the limit applied, to provide the same profit assuming one of the selections wins.

General principles and guidelines to determine Risk Level  for Post Racing selections.

1) Set the Operating Profile to Risk Level 1 at the start of the day.

2) Divide races into 2, 3 or 4 blocks depending on number of runners

3) Look at how the prices for the selections overlay onto these blocks. So for example for a 20 runner race we would divide as near as possible into 4 blocks based on prices.

If 5 of the runners are 50/1 or more, these would constitute block 5. Remember to watch for market movements that may place particular selections into different blocks.

4) Using the above example, if all the selections prices fell into this last block then it is absolutely Risk Level 1 and so on.

5) If all 3 selections fell into the first block then consider a higher Risk level. However look at the number of runners and unless there is clear daylight between your 3 selections and the rest of the field then consider Risk Level 2 or 3 depending on number of runners. Watch for any significant movement relating to those outside your selections.

6) Stick to Risk level 1 until you are convinced that the market is moving in your favour and to what degree. So for example you may have a larger field but one of your selections is a clear favourite, one of your other selections is 2ndor 3rdin the betting and the third is amongst the top half in the betting. This would lead you to start thinking about a minimum Risk Level 2 and possibly Risk Level 3

7) We would never use Risk Level 5 for a Dutching bet. Risk Level 1 is by far the most common we use.

The Risk levels and percentage use of those Risk Levels to date, are as follows.

Risk Level 1: 73%, Risk Level 2: 22%, Risk Level 3: 4%, Risk Level 4: 1%.

8) If in doubt/unsure always use Risk Level 1 and if you are on a winning/losing streak remember you can always use the RMR button on the Operating Profile which allows you to tell the programme to start Recommending Stakes as though it was the first race of the day. This will minimise any progressive staking within your Operating Profile limits.

Notes:

The following explains two ways of entering the same investment for a Dutch 4 that you would for a Dutch 3.

1) On your Selection Page add a selection line and from the Bet Type drop down menu select Dutch 4.

Enter your four selections and the odds for each. In the AG Stake boxesan amount will be shown against each selection. Add the amounts together for the first three selections and enter this amount in the CS box underneath the Time box and click away from the CS box anywhere else on the Selection Page.

The amounts now shown in the Actual Stake boxes for each of the four selections, which are the amounts you would place with your bookmaker/exchange, will now total the amount you would have invested on your Dutch 3.

2) There may be situations where it is not clear whether a Dutch 3 or a Dutch 4 will be required until nearer the time of the event.

In this case it is suggested that you add two selection lines on your Selection Page. On the Bet Type drop down menu, select Dutch 3 for the first and Dutch 4 for the second.

Now enter your first three selections and the odds on both and leave the fourth line empty on the Dutch 4 until you are ready to enter your fourth selection. (If a fourth selection is not required, delete the line.)

If a fourth selection is entered, add the total investments on the Dutch 3 and enter the total in the CS box on the Dutch 4.

For both options the projected profit is less but the stats show that when these bets win especially with the bottom rated favourite, the swing from loss to profit far out ways leaving them out.

The Risk Level should now be reconsidered as there are now 4 selections in the Dutch bet and not 3.

Do not automatically assume that the Risk Level should be increased.

You could use the Dutch 4 investment shown in the Actual Stake boxes, but by wagering the total for the Dutch 3 investment you cannot lose any more. The worst that can happen is you don’t make as much profit on an individual race when one of the selections wins.

These guidelines will be updated as the trends and statistics continue to develop.

If you have any questions or would like further information please contact us through our Contact Us link located at the bottom of the Home Page on the Astech Gold webpage:  www.astech.gold

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